Day-ahead forecasting and KGÜP in Türkiye
In Türkiye, licensed renewable plants submit a final day-ahead production schedule, the KGÜP, for the next day. Deviations from it are settled at imbalance prices and, beyond a tolerance band, charged a KÜPST penalty. Frontwatt delivers the forecast before the day-ahead market closes, prepares the KGÜP and tracks both costs every day.
Updated
How the KGÜP works
The rules below are those in force in 2026. They change with EPDK decisions, so Frontwatt keeps every number as a setting rather than in code.
- What it is. The KGÜP, kesinleşmiş gün öncesi üretim/tüketim programı, is the production schedule for the next day. Since October 2026 the regulation sets it per settlement period rather than per hour; today a settlement period is one hour. It goes to TEİAŞ, the system operator, through its TPYS system.
- Timing. The day-ahead market, GÖP, closes for bids at 12:30 on the day before delivery. Results are published by 14:00, and the KGÜP must be submitted by 15:30. It can still be updated until half an hour after the intraday market closes for that period.
- Who submits. The market participant the plant is registered under, usually the licence holder. For plants in an aggregator’s portfolio, the aggregator submits.
- YEKDEM plants are not exempt. Since 2016, plants in the renewable support mechanism pay their own imbalance and KÜPST costs.
Two costs of a deviation
Imbalance. The difference between metered output and the final schedule is settled by EPİAŞ at imbalance prices derived from the day-ahead price (PTF) and the system marginal price (SMF). Since 2026, the coefficients depend on whether the system is short or long in that settlement period.
KÜPST. The part of the deviation beyond a tolerance band is penalised. For 2026 the band is 15% of the final schedule for wind, 8% for solar and 5% for hydro and geothermal. The penalty on that excess energy is the higher of 750 TRY/MWh, PTF and SMF, times a coefficient of 0.05 for renewable plants, rising to 0.08 for units with frequent outages.
Example: with PTF and SMF at 2,500 TRY/MWh, one megawatt-hour of wind deviation outside the band costs 125 TRY in KÜPST, on top of the imbalance settlement.
What Frontwatt does for plants in Türkiye
- On time for both deadlines. Forecasts are ready before the 12:30 day-ahead market close and are updated as new weather model runs arrive, well before the 15:30 KGÜP deadline.
- A KGÜP chosen for cost. For every plant and hour, the schedule with the lowest expected imbalance and KÜPST cost, with an approval step. How the schedule is chosen.
- Files for TPYS. Exports in Excel, CSV and ENTSO-E XML. Direct submission through TEİAŞ web services is in preparation.
- Scoring with public data. EPİAŞ transparency data, metered output by plant, PTF, SMF, imbalance prices and your published KGÜP, feeds a daily scorecard, so our error appears next to your schedule’s.
- Costs in TRY. Imbalance and KÜPST per plant and day, calculated with the actual prices.
- Hydro that follows declarations. Where a plant’s declared available capacity, the EAK, signals a shutdown, such as a canal plant at the end of the irrigation season, the hydro forecast follows it.
Because EPİAŞ publishes hourly output for licensed plants, a portfolio can be set up and scored from public data before you share anything.
Changes ahead
Türkiye’s balancing power market is scheduled to move to 15-minute settlement periods on 1 January 2027. Since 19 October 2026, the KGÜP and the declared available capacity, the EAK, have been set per settlement period instead of per hour. We are preparing 15-minute forecasts and KGÜP schedules for this change.