# Frontwatt

> Frontwatt turns over 100 weather scenarios into probabilistic power forecasts for wind, solar and hydro plants, and picks the day-ahead schedule with the lowest expected imbalance cost. Frontwatt is a product of Nex Habit LLC (Delaware, United States). It is live in Türkiye; Europe is planned next; other markets are served on request.

Key facts:
- Technologies: wind (turbine-level modelling), solar, hydro and geothermal plants.
- Output: hourly P10 to P90 ranges and a median, plus the day-ahead schedule with the lowest expected imbalance cost.
- Delivery: web dashboard, Excel, CSV and ENTSO-E XML exports, and a REST API.
- Türkiye: KGÜP schedules ready for submission, EPİAŞ prices and metered output, imbalance and KÜPST cost tracking.
- Accuracy policy: forecasts are scored against metered output at the decision deadline, nMAE is normalised by installed capacity, missing hours are reported as missing, and no headline accuracy claims are published.
- Contact: hello@frontwatt.com. Demo requests: https://frontwatt.com/contact/
- Languages: English and Turkish.

## Pages (English)

- [Home](https://frontwatt.com/): Frontwatt turns over 100 weather scenarios into probabilistic power forecasts for wind, solar and hydro plants, and picks the day-ahead schedule with the lowest expected imbalance cost.
- [Wind power forecasting](https://frontwatt.com/wind-power-forecasting/): How Frontwatt forecasts wind farm output from over 100 weather scenarios, turbine by turbine, and turns it into P10–P90 ranges for every hour.
- [Solar power forecasting](https://frontwatt.com/solar-power-forecasting/): How Frontwatt forecasts PV plant output from irradiance scenarios, panel geometry, temperature and inverter limits, with P10–P90 ranges for every hour.
- [Hydropower forecasting](https://frontwatt.com/hydropower-forecasting/): How Frontwatt forecasts hydropower output from recent production, rainfall, announced availability and operating plans, with honest ranges.
- [Probabilistic forecasts: P10, P50 and P90](https://frontwatt.com/probabilistic-forecasting/): A probabilistic forecast gives the likely range of output for every hour. What P10, P50 and P90 mean, where the range comes from and how to use it.
- [Day-ahead schedules and imbalance costs](https://frontwatt.com/day-ahead-scheduling/): How Frontwatt picks the day-ahead schedule with the lowest expected imbalance cost from the full forecast range and your market's price and penalty rules.
- [How we measure forecast accuracy](https://frontwatt.com/forecast-accuracy/): How Frontwatt scores forecasts: nMAE normalised by capacity, scored at the decision deadline, compared with your submitted schedule, with no gaps hidden.
- [Day-ahead forecasting and KGÜP in Türkiye](https://frontwatt.com/markets/turkiye/): How Frontwatt supports renewable plants in Türkiye: forecasts before the day-ahead market closes, KGÜP schedules and imbalance and KÜPST cost tracking.
- [About Frontwatt](https://frontwatt.com/about/): Frontwatt is a probabilistic forecasting and day-ahead scheduling service for renewable plants, by Nex Habit LLC. What we do, where we work, how to reach us.
- [Frequently asked questions](https://frontwatt.com/faq/): Answers about Frontwatt: what it forecasts, which weather models it uses, how schedules are chosen, how accuracy is measured and which markets it serves.
- [Glossary](https://frontwatt.com/glossary/): Plain definitions of the terms used in renewable power forecasting and electricity markets, from P10 and nMAE to KGÜP, KÜPST and imbalance.

## Sayfalar (Türkçe)

- [Ana sayfa](https://frontwatt.com/tr/): Frontwatt, 100’den fazla hava senaryosunu rüzgâr, güneş ve hidroelektrik santralleri için olasılıklı üretim tahminine çevirir ve beklenen dengesizlik maliyeti en düşük gün öncesi programı seçer.
- [Rüzgâr enerjisi üretim tahmini](https://frontwatt.com/tr/ruzgar-enerjisi-uretim-tahmini/): Frontwatt rüzgâr santrali üretimini 100'den fazla hava senaryosundan, türbin türbin tahmin eder ve her saat için P10–P90 aralığı verir.
- [Güneş enerjisi üretim tahmini](https://frontwatt.com/tr/gunes-enerjisi-uretim-tahmini/): Frontwatt GES üretimini ışınım senaryoları, panel geometrisi, sıcaklık ve evirici sınırlarıyla tahmin eder; her saat için P10–P90 aralığı verir.
- [Hidroelektrik üretim tahmini](https://frontwatt.com/tr/hidroelektrik-uretim-tahmini/): Frontwatt HES üretimini son üretim, yağış, ilan edilen emre amade kapasite (EAK) ve işletme planlarından tahmin eder; belirsizliği gizlemez.
- [Olasılıklı tahmin: P10, P50 ve P90](https://frontwatt.com/tr/olasilikli-tahmin/): Olasılıklı tahmin her saat için olası üretim aralığını verir. P10, P50 ve P90 ne demek, aralık nereden gelir ve nasıl kullanılır?
- [Gün öncesi program ve dengesizlik maliyeti](https://frontwatt.com/tr/gun-oncesi-program/): Frontwatt, tahmin aralığının tamamını ve piyasanızın fiyat ve ceza kurallarını kullanarak beklenen dengesizlik maliyeti en düşük programı seçer.
- [Tahmin doğruluğunu nasıl ölçüyoruz](https://frontwatt.com/tr/tahmin-dogrulugu/): Frontwatt tahminleri nasıl puanlar: kurulu güce göre nMAE, karar anındaki tahmin, gönderdiğiniz programla yan yana kıyas ve gizlenmeyen eksik veri.
- [KGÜP için üretim tahmini](https://frontwatt.com/tr/kgup-tahmini/): KGÜP nedir, ne zaman bildirilir, KÜPST ve dengesizlik nasıl hesaplanır? Frontwatt GÖP'ten önce tahmin verir, KGÜP'ü hazırlar, maliyeti izler.
- [Frontwatt hakkında](https://frontwatt.com/tr/hakkimizda/): Frontwatt, Nex Habit LLC'nin yenilenebilir santraller için olasılıklı tahmin ve gün öncesi program hizmetidir. Ne yapıyoruz, nerede çalışıyoruz, nasıl ulaşılır.
- [Sık sorulan sorular](https://frontwatt.com/tr/sss/): Frontwatt hakkında kısa cevaplar: neyi tahmin eder, hangi hava modellerini kullanır, program nasıl seçilir, doğruluk nasıl ölçülür, hangi pazarlarda çalışır.
- [Sözlük](https://frontwatt.com/tr/sozluk/): Yenilenebilir enerji üretim tahmininde ve elektrik piyasasında kullanılan terimlerin sade tanımları: P10, nMAE, KGÜP, KÜPST, EAK, dengesizlik.

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